Latest Update (Tue, Aug 19): We’ve published a fresh briefing with today’s track and the next 24–48 hours for Topsail. Read today’s Hurricane Erin update →
Hurricane Erin intensified overnight and is now a major hurricane over the open Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center reports Erin is moving W/NW- pushing northeast of the Leeward Islands with very dangerous winds and expanding seas.
Here in southeastern North Carolina, the main effects we should expect are building swells and an increasing rip current risk throughout this weekend. These current risks will intensify as we move past Sunday evening and into next week.
“Hurricane Erin has intensified into a powerful Category 4 storm… located about 120 to 150 miles northeast of Anguilla and moving west-northwest at around 20 mph.”
While locals know that hurricane modeling is never exact, they do currently show Erin turning northward between the Bahamas and Bermuda next week. This would continue to keep the core of Erin offshore from the Carolinas.
The primary, immediate concerns for the local Topsail area are focused on the Atlantic itself. The offshore track provides plenty of space for the storm’s momentum to create prolonged ocean swells – which can wreak havoc on the beaches and could even produce localized flooding if waves can begin to breach any dunes.
Last Night: Erin’s Rapid Intensification
Erin’s wind field, wind shear decreased – and her size itself grew significantly overnight.
Hurricane force winds remain compacted near the eye of the storm, but tropical storm force winds extend well outward, particularly on the north side. This drives a larger area of battering surf and dangerous marine conditions ahead of the storm’s movement.
The Washington Post notes that Erin intensified at a rapid clip thanks to very warm waters, ample moisture and relatively low wind shear, with offshore waves modeled to extreme heights near the storm’s core.
“Expect Erin’s ocean swell to build breakers to locally over 3′ this weekend and perhaps over 6′ for some Cape Fear beaches by next week – please beware of an uptick in dangerous rip currents.”
Storm Track Outlook & Confidence
Forecast confidence is higher today in a northward turn next week, likely placing Erin on a path between the Carolina coast and Bermuda. The NHC cone and wind probability graphics remain the official source for timing and risk.
For Topsail, the most probable outcome is several days of elevated surf and rip currents, occasional beach statements from the National Weather Service, and otherwise typical late August weather on land.
Local Guidance for Topsail
- Beach Safety – If red flags or rip current statements are posted, stay out of the water. Swell will trend higher into early next week, but rip currents are difficult to spot, especially for those visiting the area and unfamiliar with the norm.
- Secure Small Items – Lightweight outdoor items, beach gear, and trash bins can blow around in strong sea breezes when long period swell is running (which is expected). Local residents are well familiar, but if you’re visiting and renting over the next week, be mindful of what’s left outside.
- Stay Informed – At Topsail Guide, our go-to local source is always the WECT First Alert Forecast – and if you’re into the details and meteorological details – we recommend the NWS Morehead City beach and rip current pages, which are updated each morning.
Visiting or Renting Locally?
- Know Your Zone – Ask your rental manager which evacuation zone you are in and identify your route inland. It is good practice every August, even when a storm like Erin feels “well offshore.” While there are no official warnings in place, it never hurts to be prepared, especially with how quickly traffic can build on both island bridges.
- Plan for Surf Conditions – Stronger rip currents can disrupt swimming, surfing, and pier plans. If you were planning to wet some lines this week, we’d recommend reviewing our Topsail Fishing Forecast before heading out. Just be sure to watch for any new pier or beach advisories.
- Stay Flexible – Outdoor plans may need to shift earlier or later in the day as swells and tides change. Keep an eye on park and beach access updates, flags at island access points – and road signs Surf City normally posts approaching the Surf City bridge.
Bottom line for Topsail – Erin is a powerful offshore hurricane and a clear surf and rip current hazard for the Cape Fear coast. Direct wind or rain impacts here are not expected, but we will continue to track each NHC advisory and WECT forecast cycle and post updates if the guidance changes.
Official resources that update several times daily:
• NHC – Hurricane Erin graphics and cone
• NHC – Public advisories
• WECT First Alert Forecast
• NWS Morehead City
